Friday, August 7, 2009

Carville's 'Secret' Poll

By Brian Faughnan

Regardless of the national mood, James Carville and Stan Greenberg seem consistently to find that things are going swimmingly for Democrats. Take a look at the headlines for their polls this year:

Don’t Believe the Hype: Support for Health Care Reform is Still Fundamentally Strong
New Survey Shows Cheney, Sotomayor Debates Threaten to Further Isolate GOP
Obama Closes the Democrats’ Historical National Security Gap
Americans See a Lot to Appreciate in Obama’s First 100 Days
As Specter Leaves the GOP, New Surveys Show Republicans in Disarray

It's rare to see a headline that doesn't radiate warm good news for Democrats, and it's rare to see one of their polls not touted across most of the liberal blogs.

For that reason, I was surprised today to notice a survey that lacked a headline, and that had not been splashed all across the Leftosphere. It was released two days ago, and it carries nothing more than the headline 'National Survey,' without a single line of narration or interpretation.

That's extremely unusual for the site - as you can see just by glancing at previous surveys.

So what's in the 'secret poll?' I bet you get it in one.

By 53%-42%, those who are likely to vote in the 2010 election say Barack Obama is 'too liberal.'

They believe by a margin of 53%-40% that he will 'raise my taxes.'

By 55%-42% they say 'he promises things that sound good' but that won't get done.

By a whopping 65%-32%, likely voters call Obama a 'big spender.'

The news for 'Democrats' more generally is no better.
On the economy, likely voters give 'the Democrats' just a 6 point edge (45%-39%) over 'the Republicans.'

Likely voters give the Republicans an 11 point edge (49%-38%) on taxes.

The Republicans have a 13 point lead (47%-34%) on government spending.

Republicans have a 5 point edge (42%-37%) on the budget deficit.

Furthermore, by a margin of 54%-34%, likely voters believe Obama is not keeping his promise to 'save or create 3 million jobs.'

And by 51%-43%, likely voters are more worried that the government will 'spend too much,' rather than 'fail to take strong action on important priorities.'

All-in-all, this is terrible news for Democrats.

Carville and Greenberg confirm that across a range of issues, support for Democrats has fallen dramatically.

This becomes clearer when you look at the findings among what Carville and Greenberg term as 'drop off' voters - those who voted in 2008, but are less likely to turn out in 2010. While likely 2010 voters give Democrats a 5 point edge on the economy, the advantage among 'drop off' voters is 25%.

Among likely voters Democrats trail by 11 on taxes; among drop off voters they lead by 20 points. The pattern holds across a range of questions. Across-the-board, those who voted in 2008 but will likely miss 2010 are far more favorable to Democrats and Obama than other voters.

The Carville-Greenberg poll - published on the site, but not publicized and not widely noticed - confirms both a significant shift toward Republicans on the issues, and a significant gap in enthusiasm between voters inclined to Obama and those inclined against.

For those used to reading the poll for good news, the 'radio silence' should be a sign of serious trouble.

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